Asia And The Pacific: El Niño Humanitarian Snapshot (As Of 29 February 2024)
El Niño remains active, with a weakening trend evident in oceanic indicators.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific and temperatures in the Pacific sub-surface are showing a clear cooling trend, aligning with the typical decay of such events.
International climate models indicate that the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with most models suggesting a return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels in April and all models projecting neutrality by May. ENSO predictions made during this period tend to have lower accuracy, so forecasts beyond May should be approached with caution.
Historically, around 50 per cent of El Niño events have been followed by a neutral year, while 40-50 per cent have been followed by La Niña. However, the significant warming of global oceans in the past 50 years may impact ENSO predictions based on historical patterns - while assessing the magnitude of global warming relies on multi-year averages, the average global temperature for the 12-month period from February 2023 to January 2024 notably reached a record high, according to Copernicus, surpassing the pre-industrial average by 1.52°C.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the majority of model forecasts indicating it will stay neutral until at least April, consistent with the annual cycle of the IOD.