Mongolia: 2024 Dzud Early Action & Response Plan (Dec 2023 – May 2024)
Situation Overview Mongolia is increasingly grappling with the impacts of climate change, manifested in discernible shifts in weather patterns that underscore the escalation of this global phenomenon. The cyclical nature of the country's four distinct seasons has been significantly disrupted, particularly since 2015, leading to a rise in recurrent summer droughts and subsequent harsh winters. This poses an escalating threat to livestock-based livelihoods, the cornerstone of rural Mongolian life, creating a pressing need for humanitarian assistance to protect vulnerable herder households with limited coping strategies. Though the summer of 2023 was initially favorable with abundant rainfall, the months that followed saw the abrupt onset of a severe temperature drop, substantial snowfall in early November, and an unusually rapid temperature rise causing a snow thaw. Subsequently, an extended period of extreme cold, dipping below -40°C, persisted through the second half of December. These combined factors have made winter 2023-2024 particularly challenging for the region. As a result, herder communities in the country are now grappling with an exceptionally harsh winter characterized by icy conditions that completely obstruct livestock access to pastures.
The icy dzud condition has not been observed since 2010, when Mongolia faced a severe dzud disaster. That year, the country experienced the loss of about 10.3 million heads of livestock, equivalent to approximately 25 per cent of the 'country's livestock population. The catastrophe impacted 769,000 people, constituting 28 per cent of 'Mongolia's total population. According to the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, 220,000 herding households were affected, with 44,000 households losing their entire herds, and 164,000 losing more than half.
As of 20 December 2023, the Government of Mongolia reports that approximately 90 per cent of Mongolia's territory, including 21 provinces excluding Ulaanbaatar city, or 321 out of 339 soums (townships), are categorized as facing a high or extreme dzud risk. Moreover, 250 soums, excluding two districts of Ulaanbaatar city, covering 74 per cent of the nation, are already in dzud or near-dzud conditions. Within the dzud conditions, 47 soums in 14 provinces are under ice or icy conditions, while 135 soums in 17 provinces are under the white dzud conditions.
The alarming rapid temperature fluctuations and heavy snowfall in November 2023 served as a warning as winter conditions deteriorated. This early awareness enabled herders to proactively engage in commercial destocking while their livestock were still in good body condition.