OVERVIEW El Niño conditions are persisting into 2024. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts that this ongoing episode will endure until at least April 2024, its model indicating that the El Niño has peaked and is currently on a declining trend – a projection aligns with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which indicates a 73 per cent likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing during April to June 2024.

These projections coincide with the challenges posed by the “spring predictability barrier”, during which accurate and reliable weather forecasts are more difficult to achieve due to the transitional nature of this period.

INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event which exhibited strong values in late 2023 has now weakened. IOD events normally dissipate as the monsoon trough shifts south into the southern hemisphere. However, due to the heightened intensity of the positive IOD in 2023, the decline of this event has been delayed when compared to the usual expected timeframe. Both model forecasts and observations align in suggesting that the positive IOD is nearing its conclusion, with the prevailing consensus indicating that the IOD index is expected to transition to a neutral state in the coming weeks.

Southeast Asia In the next three months, mostly typical seasonal conditions are expected in Southeast Asia. However, there are notable signs of below-average rainfall in the Philippines, particularly in Luzon province, and southern Viet Nam, as well as a mild drought situation over northern Lao PDR.

Timor-Leste also continues to show signals of below-average rainfall, including potentially into the current rainy season. Together with the Government of Timor-Leste, FAO continues to scale up anticipatory action for drought in the country, boosted by the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) through a US$2 million allocation, as well as response activities with partners including WFP and UNICEF.

The Pacific region In Papua New Guinea, which faced a drought until early 2024, the current wet season may potentially break the drying influence with the northwest monsoon. However, drying effects may nevertheless persist despite not being visibly apparent at this time. It thus remains crucial to continue closely monitoring local information. The Solomon Islands are displaying strong signals of above-average rainfall conditions, extending to Tuvalu. In the South Pacific, Fiji is expected to experience below-average rainfall in the coming months, coinciding with the rainy/cyclone season. Additionally, persistent dry conditions are causing water stress in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau. In mid-January 2024, the Governor of the Pohnpei – one of the four states of the Federated States of Micronesia – issued a Declaration of Emergency pertaining to inadequate water supply for the main island of Pohnpei including the outer islands of the State, due to very dry conditions ascribed to the effects of El Niño.

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