Situation Overview
SITUATION OVERVIEW
On 26 February, the Ethiopian Government and humanitarian partners issued the 2024 Ethiopia Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) costed at US$3.24 billion. This joint appeal targets 15.5 million people with multi-sectoral assistance, amongst whom are 4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) assessed to have enormous humanitarian and durable solutions needs. As of September 2023, the regions of Somali (with an estimated 29.6 per cent), Oromia (29.5 per cent) and Tigray (27.4 per cent) account for the highest IDP caseloads nationwide. Returns in large numbers also continue in Amhara, Tigray and Afar regions and in Konso Zone in South Ethiopia Region. As of September 2023, an estimated 2.5 million IDPs across Ethiopia had returned to their places of origin, 97 per cent of whom had been initially displaced by conflict.(1)
This year, life-saving needs and requirements remain at elevated levels due to the impact of multiple, often overlapping, crises impacting vulnerable Ethiopians across the country. This includes the impact of the El Niño-driven drought, with parts of Afar, Amhara and Tigray regions hardest hit. Reflective of the deep concern about the unfolding crisis and the urgency to respond, the Emergency Relief Coordinator announced on 27 February the allocation of $17 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) for Ethiopia. This timely allocation will enable immediate response to scale up, given the short window of opportunity to avert the worst impact on communities, pending additional donor contributions towards the HRP.
More than 200,000 IDPs in Afar Region require urgent humanitarian and recovery assistance.
The Afar Region hosts over 200,000 IDPs affected by conflict, hostilities and climate shocks(2), including some 57,000 IDPs (54 per cent of them female) identified in IDP sites as of September 2023 and over 130,000 IDPs living in protracted conditions in informal settings and amongst host communities since early 2021, according to aggregated reports.(3) The protracted IDPs remain without any form of assistance, mostly depending on the meagre resources from the host community.
Meanwhile, the ongoing El Niño-induced drought is already causing new displacements with an estimated 15,500 people reportedly displaced in Awsi/ Zone 1, Kilbati/Zone 2 and Zone 6 as of the time of writing. According to findings of a recent multi-agency drought assessment (January 2024), this drought has severely affected crops, water sources and pastures crucial for livestock, which is the primary source of food and income for communities in the area. Water shortages, due to dried up water banks (ponds) and underground water, have led to mechanical failure of water pumps and the closure of 76 water schemes. As a result, at least 11 healthcare facilities are no longer functional and an estimated 4,400 children are not attending school.(4)
Overall, close to 600,000 people are affected by drought in the region. The abovementioned assessment identified water, food, livestock needs (feed and treatment), health, nutrition, and education as the top five needs. Response is ongoing, however limited, including for example, water trucking support in drought-affected Kori district (Zone 1) and with Mobile Health and Nutrition Teams (MHNTs) interventions for protracted IDPs in Kilalu district (Zone 6).
Insecurity in Amhara Region causing access challenges and delay in humanitarian response
In Amhara, an estimated 66,153 displaced people/18,335 households were identified in 88 sites between August and September 2023. Hostilities were the primary reason for displacement (98 per cent of sites assessed), while only 2 per cent was due to flooding. Assessments identified food (89.8 per cent of assessed sites), shelter (64.8 per cent) and livelihood support (35.2 per cent) as the priority needs.
Meanwhile, the El Niño-induced drought has so far displaced over 1,200 people in two deeply impacted zones of North Gondar and Wag Hamra of the Amhara Region.(5) At least 2.4 million livestock face shortage of water and feed in seven zones and nearly 175,000 livestock migrated to neighbouring kebeles, in search of water and feed according to the Amhara Public Health Institute.
The Ethiopian government and partners are responding with food and other humanitarian assistance despite severe access constraints due to insecurity, including fuel shortage necessary to transport relief supplies across the region. Humanitarian response remains inadequate relative to the scale of needs. With the support of the Government, more than 10,000 conflict-affected IDPs at the Jara IDP site, which is located in the drought-affected North Wello Zone, received food assistance, including over 150 Metric Tons (MT) of wheat (15 kilograms per person) and 300 litres of oil in the week of 9 February, falling short of a full basket with less than 700 people receiving oil.
At least half of the IDPs in the region are not receiving humanitarian assistance for lack of Government and partners’ resource capacities and insecurity. There is delay and shortages of general food distribution (GFD) in IDP sites in North Gondar, North Wello, Wag Hamra, South Wello, Central Gondar and North Shewa zones, where nutrition support is being provided through mobile health and nutrition teams (MHNTs). The shelter situation of IDPs is precarious considering some 8,000 households in Abergele district (Wag Hamra) are living amongst host communities or in public buildings (mostly in damaged homes, rented houses, host family homes and in open compounds of host families with no shelter).
In Debre Berhan, over 23,000 IDPs reside in three camps and close to 7,700 IDPs live outside camps. While partners are providing shelter and rental support, it is not nearly enough. In addition to shelter, priority needs are food (currently at irregular distribution) and non-food items (sleeping mats and blankets, considering the cold weather in Debre Berhan).
As part of the national IDP rehabilitation and recovery plan, Government-facilitated returns of IDPs from the Amhara Region to their areas of origin in Oromia have begun as of 18 February 2024. About 1,530 people (416 households) out of a planned 4,100 IDPs have so far been relocated from Debre Berhan and South Wello zones (Amhara) to temporary sites in East Wollega, West Wollega and West Shewa zones (Oromia) as of 26 February. Implementation of returns have, however, been reported to face some challenges with regards to ensuring compliance to international IDP return principles. The humanitarian community has had multiple engagements with Government counterparts at federal and regional levels to constructively engage in and support the Government in a returns process that is in line with international standards.
The majority of IDPs in the Tigray Region live in host communities – continued humanitarian assistance required pending full recovery.
Tigray Region hosts an estimated 950,000 IDPs (53 per cent female). This constitutes 42 per cent of the national conflict caseload primarily due to the northern Ethiopia conflict (2020-2022). As of September 2023, the majority of IDPs were living with the host community (80 per cent). The most reported needs across 661 assessed IDP sites are food, shelter, and non-food items.
More than 2.8 million people in the region (88 per cent of a 3.2 million targeted) received food assistance as part of the January food distributions completed on 21 February, with the support of the main food partners (Government, WFP, and the NGO consortium JEOP). The disbursement of cash for food assistance to more than 251,900 people is also ongoing since 26 February in the towns of Adwa and Abi Adi (Central Zone), Enderta (Southeastern Zone) and Edaga Hamus (Eastern Zone).
Thousands of IDPs in the Northwestern Zone continue to live in schools, delaying the resumption of learning. There has been notable movement of IDPs, who were originally living with host communities, to IDP collective sites primarily motivated by registrations for food assistance, contributing to overcrowding in those collective sites. These phenomena further complicate the process of relocating IDPs out of schools to alternative shelter options.
Displacements and returns in the Oromia Region are complex and protracted due to multiple natural and man-made shocks.
Oromia hosts a reported 1.5 million IDPs living in sites and with host communities as of February 2024, according to regional authority figures.
In August – September 2023, surveys conducted in 728 IDP sites identified 1,023,439 IDPs/196,609 households. The IDPs living among the host communities are in situations of protracted displacement with compounded humanitarian needs due to floods, drought, disease, and hostilities. These are evident in the southern zones of East Borena, Guji and West Guji where an estimated 543,000 IDPs affected by hostilities live in dire conditions. Food is among the priority urgent needs. Similarly, close to 794,000 IDPs in the four Wellega zones (West, East, Kelem, and Horo Guduru) as well as in the North and West Shewa zones require food, WASH, health, nutrition, education, protection and ES/NFI assistance.
Oromia’s two Hararge zones (East and West) host up to 172,000 IDPs and over 300,000 returnees living in protracted and poor conditions respectively. These IDPs have been living with host communities and have not been prioritized for humanitarian assistance despite their dire condition. Food, shelter, WASH, and access to health remain critical gaps. However, humanitarian partners (their presence currently limited) face challenges to assist communities in hard-to-reach areas due to frequent clashes between Government and non-state armed groups. Assistance has therefore had a slow pace, due to security challenges over the past couple of years among others. In 2023, for example a little over 100,000 people out of a targeted 800,000 people received emergency shelter and non-food item assistance across the Hararge zones, as well as in the southern and western zones of Oromia. For returnees in the Hararge zones, restoration of their assets, recovery and rehabilitation support, including livelihood intervention are their primary needs without which they continue to depend on humanitarian assistance. Food also remains a primary need (20 per cent of the returnees currently receive intermittent food assistance), until durable solutions are put in place.
Humanitarian needs in Southern Ethiopia
The southern regions of Central Ethiopia (CER), South Ethiopia (SER) and Southwest Ethiopia (SWEP) in total host over 265,000 IDPs who need humanitarian assistance. The displacements owe to different hostilities that took place between 2019 and 2022 mostly over territory (border disputes), regional autonomy (administrative re-restructuring) and scare resources. Flood events as recent as October/November 2023 have also affected and displaced tens of thousands. Dasenech district in South Omo Zone (SER) is among those impacted by recurrent floods with over 69,000 people displaced due to October/November floods. Response, which currently stands at about 20 per cent of need, needs to be scaled-up to support the IDPs in Dasenech. While relocation within the same displacement area is being explored by authorities, the need to find permanent sites for the IDPs is crucial.
Central Ethiopia, SER, Sidama and SWEP account for 177,000 returnees displaced mainly due to conflicts since 2019. The top priority areas for multisectoral humanitarian support in relation to returnees are found primarily in the following: Konso Zone (Karat Zuria, Segen Zuria district), Kore (Amaro) and Wolayita (Abela Abaya) in SER; in Bench Sheko (Gurafereda and South Bench) in SWEPR; East Guraghe (East Meskan) and Mareko Special district in CER; and in Sidama’s North (Bilate Zuria) and East (Chire). Primary needs of the population mainly include food, ES/NFI, health, nutrition, agriculture, livelihoods, WASH, and education.
Food insecurity is worsening in the northern areas of the Somali Region due to drought-like conditions, requires urgent action.
In the Somali Region, drought-like conditions in Fafan and Siti zones are reportedly forcing people to migrate domestically and beyond the Ethiopian border in search of food and water for livestock. Agropastoral communities are facing extreme difficulty with deepening food insecurity due to the failure of an estimated 80 per cent of crop production during the 2023 Gu rains (April- June). This is further compounded with consumer price inflation and shortage in food relief.
Only 25 per cent of the people in need will have limited access to food in the coming weeks. A recent multi-agency rapid assessment in Fafan indicated that at least five schools in Babile district with over 1,200 students were forced to close due to the drought induced displacement of students with their families. Similarly, some 33 schools in Awbare district are on the verge of closing due to a severe shortage of water. In contrast, both Fafan and Siti zones are beneficiaries of the gu rains, which per forecasts, may receive above-normal rainfall expecting flash floods due to heavy rainfall in March-May 2024.
Above-normal March-May rains and forecasted high risk of flooding and associated displacement; preparedness and early response can save lives and minimize impact.
The Government of Ethiopia issued a Flood Alert in January for the 2024 March-May rain season calling for coordinated flood preparedness in at-risk areas where over two million people are expected to be affected and some one million people to be displaced.
The Ethiopian Metrology Institute forecasts indicate early onset with normal to above-normal rains in most belg receiving areas of southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and some northern parts of the country. Therefore, accelerated contingency and response readiness planning require the support of the humanitarian community at all levels. Multi-sectoral response needs to consider that these flood events will take place at a time when cholera outbreak is widespread in these same regions. Historical data shows the belg/gu/ganna rains expose increase the risk of flash floods in most parts of Somali, Southern Oromia, Southern parts of SER and beneficiaries of belg rains in central and east Oromia, east Amhara, southern and southeastern Tigray, Afar, Sidama, SWEP, CER, Dire Dawa, and Harari regions. Accordingly, the 2023 belg rains/floods had displaced over 35,000 households in the Somali Region alone. Some regions are finalizing flood contingency and response readiness plans, following the Federal Government alert.
Supporting humanitarian efforts through peer learning for better collaboration and knowledge sharing.
A Peer to Peer (P2P) Support Mission is visiting Ethiopia on 26 February – 8 March 2024 to support the humanitarian response in the country. The mission will engage with national and regional Government and humanitarian partners, with visits to regions affected by drought, conflict, disease outbreaks, and food aid diversion. Outcomes of the mission will inform ongoing support, future programmatic direction, and focus, through feedback, and learning to the Humanitarian Coordinator and the Humanitarian Country Team.
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Footnotes
(1) IOM: Ethiopia National Displacement Report No. 17 (Aug-Sep 2023).
(2) OCHA regional overview of humanitarian response and gaps.
(3) “Ibid.”
(4) 11-21 January 2024 multi-partners assessment of 15 districts affected by failure of seasonal karma/sugum rains.
(5) Amhara Public Health Institute’s (APHI) emergency report, 17 January 2024.