On 23 October, military representatives from the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) signed a ceasefire agreement. This was followed by the resumption of intra-Libyan talks, based on Security Council resolution 2510 (2020) that endorsed the conclusions of the Berlin conference held in January 2020. These positive events are important developments to permanently ending the conflict and moving towards peace and stability in Libya.

However, in the near-term, and with the continuing impact of COVID-19, humanitarian needs will remain as agreements materialize on the ground and the economy rebounds. The lifting of force majeure and blockade by LNA forces on oil production is expected to alleviate the economic situation in the country and have a positive impact for some of the country’s most vulnerable people. It is estimated that for the beginning of 2021, 1.3 million people will be in need of some form of humanitarian assistance, an increase of 40 per cent, compared to 2020. Since the suspension of hostilities in southern Tripoli in June 2020, some 36,000 people have returned home. However, across the country, more than 392,000 people remain displaced. The rate of these returns has been constrained by a lack of basic services, which were damaged during the conflict and the presence of booby traps, including IEDs, landmines and explosive remnants of war that continue to present grave protection risks until they can be safely cleared. As the broader conflict has cooled, inter-group violence between GNA-aligned armed groups in the West has increased. This has included, in some instances, the use of heavy weapons in urban areas. There have been clashes reported in Tajoura in late September, between rival groups in Tripoli in early October and most recently in Tarhuna.

The socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 continue to erode people’s living standards and access to public services. Fuel shortages and continuous power cuts have also severely affected people’s living conditions, as well as impacting the functioning of health facilities.