Conflict and a macroeconomic crisis drive above-average food needs
FEWS NET reports in its latest update that displacement due to tribal clashes, above-average staple food prices and continued macroeconomic difficulties are contributing to higher-than-normal emergency food assistance needs in Sudan during the post-harvest season. These needs are expected to persist into at least May 2020, particularly as the lean season in agricultural and agropastoral areas approaches.
Between February and September 2021, most areas of Sudan will face minimal level of food insecurity - Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 1 - or stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, although parts of Jebel Marra, South Kordofan, Red Sea, Kassala, North Kordofan, and North Darfur will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
National cereal production for the 2020/21 main summer season in Sudan is estimated at 7.6 million metric tons, about 7 percent higher than 2019/20 harvest and 19 per cent higher than the five-year average, including a forecasted about 700,000 tons of wheat to be harvested in March. Total cereal requirements for 2021 are estimated at around 9.9 million tons, including about 3.5 million tons of wheat. The production of sesame and groundnut—main cash crops—is 6 per cent and 15 per cent lower than last year, respectively, but 49 per cent and 18 per cent above the five-year average.
Staple food prices continued atypically increasing across most main markets in Sudan during the post-harvest period of February 2021. This was driven by the extremely high production and transportation costs, limited carryover stock from last year, and above-average demand for sorghum and millet for local consumption due to shortages, and high wheat and wheat flour prices. Cereal prices in February remained on average over 200 percent higher than last year and over six times higher than the five-year average.
For more information, see the FEWS NET report here