Sudan

Situation Report
Analysis
IPC map June-Sep 2021

Almost 10 million people are acutely food insecure and need urgent assistance – IPC

The IPC’s latest assessment projects that almost 10 million people – more than 21 per cent of Sudan’s total population – are acutely food insecure and require urgent humanitarian assistance during June-September 2021. This projection period corresponds to the main lean season for most of the areas analysed, during which the levels of food insecurity are the highest in any given year historically.

According to IPC, seasonal trends and shifts in this period include tribal conflict, low purchasing power and high food prices, and are the main drivers of food insecurity during the first projection. In the lean season, around 2.7 million people will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with nearly 7.1 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and over 16.5 million people in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity. This marks an increase of 29.6 per cent (from 5.5 million to 7.1 million) of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 46.5 per cent (from 1.8 million to 2.7 million) of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), compared to the current analysis period (April - May 2021).

During the projected period, 130 localities are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). A total of 51 localities moved between Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while three localities moved between Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The total population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse is 9.8 million, which is 2 per cent higher than the number of people in high acute food insecurity in the IPC analysis of June - September 2020 (9.6 million).

In addition to seasonality, intercommunal conflict and expected displacements may impact several areas and also cause a deterioration in food security, i.e. Geneina locality in West Darfur.

Localities of Halayeb and Jabiet Al Maadin of Red Sea State will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), as in the current, due to the impact of drought on livelihoods and price shocks. There is a slight deterioration of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse in Jabiet Al Maadin by 5 per cent, while Halayeb slightly improves by 5 per cent, attributed to assistance and availability of pasture.

Localities of Al Buram and Heiban of South Kordofan state will move from Crisis in the current period to Emergency, due to protracted insecurity and poor access of some isolated areas. Households in this period will increasingly rely on markets to purchase staple food at significantly higher than normal prices. Livestock productivity will be at seasonally low levels during the dry season of May to June.

The increase in staple food prices will outpace earnings in cash income from agricultural labour and livestock sales. As the rainy season progresses between June and September, livestock productivity, access to in-kind and cash income from agricultural labour are expected to increase, providing some improvement in household food access. However, staple food prices are expected to increase following the seasonal trend throughout the lean season, further reducing household purchasing power.

The most affected groups are internally displaced people (IDPs), returnees, those stranded in conflict-hit areas, refugees from neighbouring South Sudan, Ethiopia and other countries; poor groups from agro-pastoral and pastoral communities in rural areas of western, eastern and northern Sudan, whose livelihoods are directly affected by the impact of lean season and macroeconomic crises.

The IPC analysis report is available here.

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