Situation Overview Somalia has recorded a fluctuation in the amount of rainfall recorded across several parts of the country, since the heavy to moderate rains received between 4 and 22 October, in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland and South West states. Apart from Baidoa District, South West state, which received moderate rains on the night of 25 and 28 October, the rest of the country received light rains during this reporting period. Save for Jamame District in Jubaland state, where partners reported riverine flooding on 14 October, the reported flash floods in other areas are mainly a result of heavy rainfall, which generally subsides within a few days once the rain stops. As a result, the majority of the affected people have returned to their settlements, while about 43,800 people have relocated to higher grounds due to the risk of anticipatory riverine flooding, especially in Hirshabelle, Jubaland, and Galmudug states. Partners estimate that about 2,112 shelters have been destroyed, including 1,222 in South West, 877 in Jubaland, and 92 in Galmudug states. The displaced people have either integrated within existing settlements and among host communities in respective areas. According to local authorities, at least four people have reportedly died due to the impact of the rains and flash floods, including three in Baidoa, and a 13-year-old girl who reportedly drowned on 20 October in Ceel Huur village, Galmudug state. At least three people are still missing in Baidoa and Galmudug states, and another 150 were reportedly injured in Luuq District in Jubaland, during the heavy rainfall on 22 October. Overall, the results of rapid assessments conducted by humanitarian partners and local authorities in parts of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland and South West states, show that about 278,000 people were affected by the heavy rains and related flash floods between 4 and 22 October. Despite the majority returning to their normal lives, they remain vulnerable to subsequent flooding should the rains continue as forecast, as most of the settlements are located in low-lying areas. The communities further face an increased risk of water- and vector-borne diseases, as well as other harsh environmental conditions due to increased pools of stagnant water in some displacement sites and damages to their shelters. A number of latrines are reportedly flooded and are overflowing into residential areas, raising the risks of infection. Protection Cluster partners have raised concerns over the reported increase in protection casesdue to the vulnerability posed by the destruction from the rains and flash floods. In Baidoa, partners identified over 3,245 pregnant women and 4,945 lactating mothers among those affected by the floods in 160 displacement sites in the town. Over 83 per cent of the affected homes are reportedly female-led households. The women are highly vulnerable in the event of continued rains, displacement, and disease outbreaks. Access to the affected areas is challenging during the rainy season as the roads become muddy and impassable, hindering timely assessment and response. Local authorities and partners in Baidoa have reported an increase in the prices of local staple foods such as sorghum and maize, as well as some imported items in Berdaale, South West state, compared to the first week of October, reportedly due to the high cost of transport caused by the impassable roads from Mogadishu to the Bay Region. Humanitarian partners, in collaboration with the authorities, have activated targeted emergency responses in inaccessible areas. Emergency preparedness and flood response coordination meetings continue to be held, under the leadership of the state Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, across the country.

According to humanitarian partners, the flooding situation has increased the need for emergency relief supplies, in a context where partners critical response gaps had been identified across sectors. Emergency needs include shelter and non-food items, food, water, sanitation and hygiene services, and the relocation of people of people who are vulnerable to repeated flooding.

Update by state South West state According to the results of a multisector impact assessment conducted in Baidoa District from 17 to 21October, about 123,000 people (15,570 families) in 160 sites in Berdale, Horseed, Howlwadaag and Isha sections of Baidoa town, were impacted by the cumulative effects of heavy rains and flash floods between 4 and 22 October. Of these about 50 per cent (61,665) are females and around 47 per cent are below 12 years old. At least 83 per cent of the people affected are reportedly female-led households, including 3,245 pregnant women and 4,945 lactating mothers. According to the partners, more than 1,222 makeshift shelters and 253 latrines have been damaged, resulting in increased protection risks and lack of access to adequate sanitation facilities. About 5,616 people (936 families) from three displacement sites namely Kormari 2, Sarmaanwiin and Imilow 1 have moved to sites on higher ground sites within the town and reportedly integrated within existing shelters and host communities. The lack of access to adequate sanitation and hygiene facilities is likely to result in an increase in water and vector-borne diseases as partners observed open defecation being practiced in the affected areas. Malaria is ranked top among the health risks in the district, due to the increase in stagnant water, followed by respiratory infections and acute watery diarrhoea. The floods have reportedly reduced access to water by the affected communities due to the destruction of water points. In addition, local authorities and partners reported an increase in price of local staple foods like sorghum and maize, as well as some imported items in Berdaale by about 7 per cent compared to the first week of October. This is attributed to an increase in transportation costs from Mogadishu to the Bay Region due to impassable roads. Partners have reported an increase in child protection issues, including family separation, child labour and risk of gender and based violence among others. Physical assault on women and girls is reportedly high in the settlements, and this is likely to increase with the increased vulnerability, especially due to displacement. Humanitarian partners and authorities anticipate an increase in the number of people affected, as the rains continue since more than 50 per cent of the displacement sites are in low-lying areas prone to flooding. There are over 650,000 IDP in Baidoa town scattered in over 600 settlements.

Response • Partners in Baidoa and Buurhakaba have initiated Multipurpose Cash Assistance on 19 October, including US$ 65 per family per month for the next two months for 500 families in Buurhakaba and $ 90 per family per month for 850 families in Baidoa, as part of reprogrammed activities for flood response. At least 64 per cent of those interviewed reportedly opted for cash assistance. • Buurhakaba is among the areas that were hardest hit by drought in the Southwest state during the 2021/2022 drought, which resulted in adverse impacts on agricultural production and livestock. The same communities are now dealing with the impact of the floods, making them even more vulnerable to climatic shocks. • Other ongoing responses in the district include hygiene promotion activities, chlorination of water points, distribution of dignity kits, unconditional cash transfers by WFP, distribution of plastic sheets by the authorities to about 1,920 people (320 families), and deployment of mobile health teams to address essential health needs.

Gaps • According to partners, more than 88,320 people (14,720 families) require food assistance. Partners are planning a distribution of high energy biscuits to about 6,000 families, plastic sheets to about 2,000 families and mosquito nets to about 2,000 families. Galmudug State According to an inter-agency assessment conducted on 22 and 23 October in 12 displacement sites in South Gaalkacyo District, that were affected by localized flash flooding on 19 and 20 October, at least 92 shelters in Kulmiye, Sahan 2, Dooxo Mudug, Mahadey, Hiiran-1, and Hiiran-3 displacement sites were reportedly damaged. About 276 people (46 families), the majority from Kulmiye (20 families) sites were displaced and have integrated into host communities in the district. A 13-year-old girl reportedly drownedand two others were reported missing in Glacad as of 26 October, according to partners. According to the local communities and partners, the rains have brought some relief for pastoral communities, by recharging surface water, and are likely to generate pasture for livestock. However, the displaced people remain vulnerable to subsequent flooding as the Bulo Ayan location where most of the sites are located is relatively lowlying, and residents will need to evacuate if it rains heavily, as forecast. Most of the sites are privately owned, and the displaced people are at risk of eviction as their tenancy agreements are about to expire.At least 39 latrines were reportedly affected, the majority in Qoraxey and Doxo mudug. According to partners, most of the assessed latrines in the camps do not meet SPHERE standards and partners have recommended the construction of latrines in priority sites to mitigate risks of disease outbreaks.Partners have recommended multipurpose cash assistance to facilitate the purchase of non-food items and emergency shelter kits. According to the Food Security Cluster partners, the market is accessible and food items are available. Most of the displaced people rely on food assistance from humanitarian organizations.

Response • According to the assessment report, only 10 per cent (about 1,224 people) of the 13,176 people (2,196 families) impacted and assessed by the partners, have access to food through the World Food Programme. The local authorities have distributed food to 34 families and are working to improve the drainage system in three districts. • Active nutrition projects are ongoing in all displacement sites and partners reported having adequate supplies.

Gaps • Nearly 12,000 people (1,992 families) require food assistance, and 72 people (12 families) need emergency shelter, according to partners. • Partners have recommended the establishment of a health post in each displacement site as current facilities are 5 to 8 kilometres away. There are no ambulances - a major gap for referral cases. • According to the Protection Cluster partners, the camps lack lighting, and this increases the risk of attacks at night, especially for women, girls, and boys. • Partners have recommended the distribution of dignity and mama kits for vulnerable women and girls and support for unaccompanied children.

Jubaland state According to the results of a rapid assessment conducted on 23 October, heavy rains and resultant flash floods on 20 and 21 October affected about 18,000 people (3,000 families) in eight displacement sites and 6,000 people (1,000 families) from the host community in Luuq town. About 677 shelters and 256 latrines were reportedly damaged and more than 3,600 people relocated to higher grounds within the same locations but remain vulnerable s in the event of additional rains and riverine flooding. Partners are initiating a prioritized response. About 13,620 people (2,270 families) are reportedly in need of food assistance in the area. Meanwhile, in Jamame District, according to partners and local authorities, no assistance has been provided to the more than 3,400 people (570 families) affected by riverine floods in the week of 14 Octoberand relocated to higher ground. According to an assessment by the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management in coordination with local and humanitarian partners, four villages along the Juba River (Singalir, Towfiiq, Wirkooy and Farwaamo) were affected by moderate river flooding, damaging 79 farms, 200 shelters, 40 latrines, seven shallow wells, and three irrigation schemes. Jamame district lies downstream, and communities along the river are usually affected by the Deyr rains. According to FAOSWALIM, more riverine flooding is expected especially in the Juba and Shabelle rivers as well as urban flash flooding, as the rainy season continues.

Response: Urgent needs include emergency shelters, non-food items, and livelihood support including cash transfers. At least 12,780 people (2,130 families) have reprotedly received anticipatory cash transfers in the second week of October. Partners have distributed 13 metric tons of high-energy biscuits and are planning the distribution of emergency shelter kits to 15,000 people, hygiene kits to 6,000 people and mosquito nets to about 6,000 people.

Hirshabelle state. According to a rapid multi-cluster joint assessment conducted on 24 and 23 October by humanitarian partners and the local authorities in Beletweyne District, about 38,360 people (6,714 families); 64 per cent female, were displaced to five evacuation sites (Ceel Jaale A, Faarax Cafi, Hiraan Bile, Ceel Jaale B, and Xuduley) following heavy rains and flash floods on 21 October. Of these, about 2,858 families were secondary displacements from the displacement sites in the area, while more than 3,855 were from other locations in the area. Urgent needs include the provision of food assistance and emergency cash and voucher assistance for the most vulnerable, and emergency shelter kits and mosquito nets due to the forecasted heavy rains in the coming months. Critical gaps have been identified in WASH, shelter, food security and livelihoods, CCCM, protection, health, and nutrition. The markets are reportedly functioning but will require monitoring to ensure price stabilization, especially at the evacuation sites. Sanitation and hygiene conditions at the displacement sites are reportedly inadequate with at least 95 per cent of the people having no access to a latrine and 65 per cent lacking access to safe water, according to the report. Partners are appealing for support for the extension of safe water supply to the new settlements and the provision of water storage facilities and hygiene kits. Installation of solar street lighting and provision of hand-held torches at the new sites remain critical in addressing the protection risks, especially for girls and women, from gender-based violations at night. Education Cluster partners have appealed for support for temporary classrooms for about 4,787 children, including 2,409 girls, who are reportedly unable to attend class due to the impact of the floods. There are reportedly no schools near the evacuation sites and most parents lack the economic means to send the children to other schools. Several children reportedly lost their books and learning materials in the floods.

Response A consultative meeting chaired by the HirShabelle Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management was held on 23 October 2023, with the participation of humanitarian and stabilization partners, and focused on flood prevention and response preparedness. Humanitarian partners are implementing targeted responses based on assessed needs and available resources across the states. Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Cluster partners have reportedly distributed hygiene kits to about 10,200 people (1,700 families) affected by floods in Mahaday and Xawazay districts. Water tracking is being provided for about 2,666 people in Farah cafi displacement sites in Beletweyne. Health Cluster partners are providing emergency health care in Mahaday district. Food Security Cluster partners have, through WFP reportedly provided mobile cash and voucher assistance to about 122,556 people (20,426 families) through anticipatory approach in Hirshabelle state, including Balcad, Beletweyne, Bulo Burto, Jowhar and Mahaday districts. Somaliland state The Meteorological Department of the Ministry of Agriculture in Somaliland issued a weather forecast for moderate to heavy rains and flash floods in the state from 24 to 31 October, mainly affecting the western regions of Woqoyi Galbeed and Awdal, and Togdheer region. The officials have warned of heavy rains in Somaliland due to the likely impact of tropical cyclone “Tej”, which has reportedly developed in the Indian Ocean in the past few days and headed to Oman and Yemen. On 26 October, heavy rains in the port town of Berbera flooded many buildings and caused waterlogging in some areas. The Mayor of Berbera warned people in old buildings in the town to move to safer buildings. The Metrological Department has advised people living in low-lying areas and valleys to remain vigilant and called on fishermen to remove their fishing vessels and gear from the sea to avoid losses. The coastal areas in Somaliland are prone to the impact of infrequent cyclones in the Indian Ocean, with the last cyclone 'Sagar’ reported in 2018. At least 52 people reportedly died and widespread destruction was reported, particularly in Lughaya, and Zaylac districts in Awdal Region, due to “Sagar”.

Weekly Forecast According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s, Somali Water and Land Information Management (FAO/SWALIM) valid for 25 to 31 October, heavy rainfall is forecast over several parts in central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed Region, northern parts in Togdheer, central parts of Gedo, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan Region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba Region. Moderate rains are expected over parts of Awdal, Beerbera district of Woqooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Burco District in Togdheer Region, parts of Sanaag, Bari, Gedo, Bakool, Middle Juba Bay and Hiraan regions and central parts in Mudug. Significant fluctuations in water levels were observed along both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the last one week. However, very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the Ethiopian Highlands and coupled with the moderate rains over both Juba and Shabelle river catchment areas, there is likely to be a rise in water levels with a high risk of flooding. El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are forecast to continue through at least early next year and are likely to influence enhanced rainfall during the current Deyr (October and December) rain season.